Fundamental Flaws of Science

I consider myself a scientist. I am a believer in the principles of observation, measurement, experimentation, and repeatability.

I do notice three rather substantial flaws in the scientific process as we apply it.

The first flaw, is the lack of a ‘truthiness’ metric. I’ll use gravity as an example. If I were to say “acceleration due to gravity”, you might just remember a number in the range of 32 ft/s² (or 9.8 m/s²). If so, good on you for remembering this little physics tidbit (geek!).

However, 32 ft/ s² Does not in fact represent the rate at which an object accelerates as it falls. It is a very good approximation for an object falling close to the earth’s surface. 

Gravitational acceleration in fact varies depending upon the distance between, and the mass of, both objects. So being a significant distance from earth versus being close to the surface, or being on a planet with different mass than earth will yield a much different rate of acceleration.

But even for a given altitude from earth, gravitational force varies depending upon location, which means acceleration varies as well (granted the variance is relatively small, thus the 32 ft/ s² will yield a sufficiently accurate value, but the point is, when you were told that “acceleration due to gravity is 32.1 ft/ s²” in school what you learned was not precisely true).

In reality science seldom defines truth. Instead it defines a model which is believed to approximate truth based upon current observation and measurement. 

In Mechanical and Electrical engineering, for example,  there are many equations that measure flows of things (Water, air, etc. for mechanical and Civil, and electricity for Electrical). Those equations do a good job of accurately modeling these flows… when they are big. But as things get much smaller (you see this often in modern electronics design, now that more computing sits in that phone you are holding than was available in the room sized computers that first put man on the moon), those equations fail miserably to accurately predict behavior, an entirely different set of equations is called upon when dealing with the miniaturized version. What does that mean? It means those equations do not represent the truth. They are good approximations of what is happening for a limited range of conditions, but they do not in fact model what is actually happening.

The problem is, this is seldom well documented, so people often accept as true, that which is only, mostly true, or generally true, or true, but only under certain circumstances.

And that’s the stuff we know we don’t know, what about the stuff we don’t know we don’t know? 

Part2 -->

Health update: back to square one.

In a March post I mentioned being happy with a 7.5 minute mile I ran. Funny how quickly you can end up back at square one. I might be at a new record low now. For the past three weeks, I have had a fever, cough, and other cold-like symptoms, pretty much without break. (Wiped out my PTO for the year). I am getting very little sleep at night. And my abdomen is a source of much pain. I think it is primarily due to the coughing, but not certain. My Gastroenterologist (ughh! that's the kind of thing really old people say!), started me on Pentasa, and a hard hitting, broad spectrum antibiotic. We also drew lots of blood for lots of tests, but so far no answers. If I am not improving dramatically by Monday, I get to start hunting for an internal medicine specialist.

Enjoy your health, and don't take it for granted. It can slip away quite unexpectedly.

Four more years with Obama

Yes, I think it is quite likely, in spite of his record setting low approval ratings, that we may get Obama for another four years. Why?

1. Incumbency. Obamba is the incumbent. Incumbents have a fair chance of being re-elected. that whole momentum thing is working for them. It isn't a guarantee, but it helps.

2. Two party politics. Most people attach themselves to either the Republican party or the Democratic party. It's a stupid way to operate a government, but it is what is is, and that is not likely to change anytime soon. So it is going to come down to the Republican in the race or the Democrat in the race.

There will be a few votes taken by other parties, and by independents. Those won't change that the winner will be either a Republican or a Democrat. The Democrats are mostly going to vote Democrat. The two candidates lean slightly to the center of party position, giving both a chance to swing a few votes from the other side. But the Republican side is a bit stirred up at the moment, Thus the moderate position of Romney is likely going to cost him some votes to those who want a more "Conservative" Conservative at the helm. He probably won't recover sufficient Democratic swing votes to cover this loss. 

3. Mormonism. There is a group of fundamentalist Christians who make up a not insignificant part of the republican vote. Many of them are likely to sit out the election, rather than vote for a "Cultist", which is what they have been convinced Romney is. Since they won't vote for "the Mormon", they will effectively cast their vote for Obama.

So, don't be to surprised when the president you love to hate is still running the show next year, and the year after that and...

Two Party Politics and other nonsense

Is there anyone really foolish enough to believe that the world is black and white? I am not alluding to right vs. wrong. I am literally talking color. Black and white.

No red, blue, yellow or purple... No gray even, just black... and white.

In the same vein, is there anyone deluded enough to believe that all people think in one of two ways? does the fact that you don't like hot dogs make you a vegetarian? Yet we do this all the time.

Sunni, Shia, Black, Caucasian, Atheist, Christian, Republican, Democrat... We draw imaginary lines, pick sides, and then often, proceed to beat each other (more) senseless. It's sheer lunacy.

Of course, it's easy to see how it begins.

Say you have six people who form a community. They have decided to vote on a handful of important matters. Three of those people get together and decide to form an alliance. They agree that one particular item is of great importance to them. There are a few other items that are important to one, and of no concern one way or the other to the rest. So a deal is made to all vote the same way on all those items. The other three vote independently, some voting yes, some voting no on the various matters, and the end result is the three who formed an alliance get most of the votes to go the way they want them to.

It is animal nature, largely. Strength in numbers, circle the wagons and all that. So we form gangs. We move in packs. We circle the wagons. We unify. We utilize strength of numbers to "get our way".

Somehow it always happens though; the gang takes on a life of it's own. It becomes the all consuming, driving force. We become so involved in the gang - in the label, that we forget what the fundamental, driving principles were. Reason is lost and madness prevails.

We formed or joined these groups in the beginning to provide protection, to preserve our particular mores, to protect our freedoms. In the end, those groups rob us of even more freedom. We become so entrenched in the dogma of the particular group, that we begin to see every decision in terms of black or white. Option 1) or option 2). All other possibilities become invisible. We lose the ability to seek rational compromise, or to find the 3rd option which satisfies the needs of all.

If you are no longer able to think critically, if you are no longer able to talk rationally, if you are no longer are to listen with empathy, you are no longer free. If you compromise your fundamental beliefs in order to support the cause of some conglomerate, you are no longer free.

And worse, this slavery was not imposed upon you. You willingly submitted to it.

The Relationship Between Law and IQ

A couple thousand years ago Jesus declared the greatest two commandments to be "Love... God" and "Love thy Neighbor...", he then made the statement that "Upon these two commandments hang all the Law and the prophets".

That is fairly obvious. Consider the ten commandments. If you love your  neighbor, then obviously you aren't going to steal from your neighbor, or kill your neighbor, or lie to your neighbor. You aren't going cheat on your loved one with your neighbor, or your neighbor's loved one.

You aren't going to covet your neighbors possessions, because that might lead to ill feelings toward your neighbor. Besides, you love your neighbor. You are going to be happy for their successes and accomplishments.

If you love God, you are going to Listen to him, and you are going to put him before material objects. Spend one day a week focusing on him, learning about him, trying to be more like him? Of Course you'd follow that small request.

So then, the Ten commandments are simply more detailed direction regarding what it means to Love God, and Love your Neighbor.

More bluntly, the ten commandments exist because some idiot couldn't figure out on his own that "Love your neighbor" included not smashing his head with a rock and taking his stuff.

It is my position that every law created is in fact contained within these two greatest commandments (Mostly, the 2nd one). Littering. If you loved God, wouldn't it sort of be obvious that you would take care of his creations? If you loved you neighbors, doesn't it make sense you would clean up after yourself, so they could have the same pristine experience you had? And so they wouldn't have to clean up your mess for you? Speeding; if you love your neighbor, are you going to drive at speeds that drastically increase the risk of you losing control of your vehicle, or failing to react to an unforeseen event, in a way that could lead to a neighbors' injury or death? No, of course not!

All our laws are efforts to more clearly define details of the two greatest commandments, because someone is too thick to figure it out on their own.

I therefore claim that there is an inverse relationship between the number of Laws, and the general IQ of a given population.

in other words... They's adding more laws 'cause they's gittin dummer!

Nothing is Random (almost?)

Dice are one of the oldest random number generators in existence.

They are not actually random.

Just think about it for a minute. When you throw a die. It leaves your hand traveling in a certain direction, and a certain speed, with a certain angular velocity. 

Then, carried by momentum and influenced by gravity, it travels to the ground where it comes under the influences of elasticity (how much it “bounces”) and friction, which cause it to tumble until friction and gravity finally win out and the die comes to a complete stop.

If you knew precisely the elasticity and friction values of the die and the surface you were rolling it on, and if you had incredibly fine motor control, such that you could very precisely control the angle and speed at which the die left your hand, and the direction and speed at which it was spinning, you could roll whatever number you wanted to roll every single time.

In other words, the only reason die rolling seems random is because we are incapable of accurately measuring environmental characteristics, and precisely controlling muscles.

Computers don’t generate truly random numbers either. They use tables of numbers; they grab values off the clock… Things which appear random to us, but in reality aren’t.

There are systems which are considered "True Random Number Generators", which use radioactive decay or atmospheric events as the source for randomness. Those things certainly seem random to us, and are certainly random enough to work for our present purposes, but are they really random, or are we just failing to see the pattern? Certainly there are a number of variables involved in creating weather patterns in the earth's atmosphere, but ultimately, thunderstorms don’t just magically appear ‘at random’ . They are the result of thermal activity and moisture, which could conceivably be accurately measured, given sufficient resources.

If you are a creationist, then you believe that someone (or something) built it all and set it in motion, just like throwing a die… (only it was more like several bajillion dice all at once…)

If you subscribe to the big bang… well, there was a whole bunch of mass in a starting state, and an explosion occurred and stuff started moving based on the directions and angular momentums imparted. Still there was a starting state and an initial force, or set of forces which initiated the motion.

The only reason anything appears random to us, is due to our inability to precisely and accurately measure all the necessary values at the starting state, and precisely and accurately measure the forces which set events in motion.

Nothing is random.

There is one possible exception to this.

Free will.

As a thinking, feeling being I have the ability to introduce true randomness to the system by the choices I make. Certainly some (many? most?) of my choices aren’t random, but are instead the result of parents, peers, genetics, environment...

But perhaps, occasionally, I defy the momentum those sources have imparted to me, and spin off in an entirely random direction, of my own free will and choice…

String Button Mind Magic

First thing you need to do is find a piece of string. Something light, like thread, fishing line, or kite string. You need a piece roughly twelve inches in length.

Now obtain a button. A small washer will work as well. just something to add a small amount of weight to the end of the string.

Tie the button to one one of the string.

Now, hold the string, in your dominant hand, so that the button is roughly at chin level, and about 10 inches from your face.

At this point, your arm should be still, the button should not be moving.

Now, forget about your arm. Focus entirely on the button. Imagine it swinging left to right. Get that image as clear in your mind as you can.left. right. left. right. left right. Keep repeating to your self "left. right. left. right". See the button swinging on the end of the string. Don't think about anything else. Block out all other sound, don't see anything else. Don't think about your arm. Just the button going left, right, left, right...

You might want to time yourself. and see how long it takes before the button start swinging.

Once you get that going good, try visualizing it swinging in a counter-clockwise circle, and see if you can get it to do that. After that, try visualizing clockwise, and see if you can get it to switch direction.

Pretty cool trick eh?

 Your brain knows what muscles need to do what in order to accomplish the task of making you pendulum swing, or go in a circle. If you can clearly visualize it occurring, your brain will subconsciously begin to send small impulses to the appropriate muscles. Given a little time, those tiny impulses will be enough to initiate the motion you are actively thinking about, but not actively attempting to do.

So....

Having seen this, how confident are you that the shows you watch, the music you listen to, the games you play...

have absolutely no effect on you?