I caught a documentary a few night ago. It chronicled a groups' scientific exploration of a specific diet. It reviewed the results of those scientific studies, and presented a number of analogies regarding the diet improving quality of life for those who followed it - there were even testimonials from individuals who had been cured of diabetes and other diseases by faithfully following this diet.
That alone was pretty compelling stuff. They continued form there to document their efforts to implement legislation to correct certain misconceptions in current government nutritional guidelines. They discussed how legislators were quite enthusiastic after hearing their findings, and in some instances trying out the diet personally and seeing the difference it made for them. Then various agricultural lobbyists became involved, and things suddenly cooled. The implication of course was that money changed hands, or that political pressure was brought to bear by the lobbyists, whose industries wold be hurt by this dietary information. While that may cause the tin-foil hat alarm to ring, the history of the tobacco lobby suggests this conspiracy is not nearly so implausible.
In the same vein, they discussed modern medicine's failure to educate individuals, pointing out that healthcare workers aren't properly educated around correct diet principles, and that the economy associated with modern pharmaceuticals gives no incentive to apply principle which would lessen their need.
They also spent some time analyzing several currently popular diets which they deemed "dangerous fads". Again, they provided plenty of evidence to back their claims, in the form of studies, anecdote and basic logical analysis and interpretation of current medical and biological data.
I imagine some of you are annoyed with me right now, for being so vague about this amazing diet. I didn't want to prejudice you right at the outset, because the really interesting thing to me wasn't the diet itself, nor was it precisely the information they provided.
The diet presented in this case was the whole-foods, plant-based diet (essentially vegetarian). And the 'fad diets' they targeted for debunking were several meat-based diets, including the Atkinson diet and the Paleo diet. I point that out specifically because as I was watching the program, I found myself recalling a a body of documentation I had read quite a few year ago promoting the Paleo diet, and what struck me as interesting is that this program and those documents were nearly identical in content. Both presented the scientific journey of a group to find the ideal diet for humans, both referenced scientific studies and analogies demonstrating the effectiveness of the diet in improving health and preventing or even curing some modern ailments (Plant based focused on heart, Paleo focused on gut, both claimed wins with diabetes).
Both cited lobby interference and pharmaceutical economy as reasons the "truth" was not more widely know and accepted. Both made sound, rational cases against the alternative diet based on scientific evidence and analysis and interpretation of current medical and biological data.
Of course, I have also seen rebuttal's by each side claiming the other side's science is junk science; flawed at best, or dishonest at worst.
But it lead to me to couple of thoughts.
Perhaps most success stories on these diets are really success stories for the placebo effect; people are convinced that it will work, and therefore dedicate themselves to it. Consequently they also are making other changes (exercise, etc...) which - combined with their belief - is what really made the difference.
So, if you can't trust "science" (or at least not the people presenting it), you can't trust the governments, you can't trust the testimonials, who can you trust?
It is interesting to note that while both claim the other is unhealthy, and both have significant points of conflict, they do have some commonalities (eliminate processed foods, processed oils, alcohol, coffee...), so, given that they all agree on those, perhaps those are the real culprits that need to be eliminated.
I am still inclined to stick to my theory that since different people have different biologies, it is more likely that different people derive better health from different diets. Perhaps some day in the not-so-distant future, there will be a genetic test which will allow you to correctly identify which foods are most beneficial, and which are most risky for your specific biology.
In the Old Testament, God gave some specific dietary guidelines to the children of Israel, In our day, Latter Day Saints believe that God provided an updated version of these guidelines (for some portions the idea that it is updated make sense. Pork for instance was a no-no for the Jews, but not restricted by the Latter Day Saint "Word of Wisdom". Pork is a much less risky option nowadays, given better food prep. technology. Of course the Word of Wisdom was written in 1833. Technology has come a long way since then - refrigeration, freezers, better food preservation technologies, we are are even starting to print food. It would be interesting to see what an current update from God would look like.
Wednesday, March 23, 2016
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Re-Thinking apple - oh yeah, one more thing...
A follow-up to my last post...
The recent news regarding apple is another thing for me to seriously consider (i.e. the government is trying to get them to break into a dead terrorists encrypted phone and they are refusing).
Once upon a time I had this dream, of a single card you could carry in your pocket, which could serve as your cash, your debit cards, all your credit cards, your insurance card, your drivers license, your passport. one card that would do it all, no more bulky wallets nor more hunting through piles of membership/rewards cards...
The smart phone is hovering near the edges of that dream. You can handle credit card pay through your phone now, some membership programs now send their special offers/rewards coupons directly to mobile phones....
Our phones are holding an increasing amount of extremely sensitive data: Financial data, health data. Friends' data...
A device with that much of my information NEEDS to be impregnable.
And the simple fact is - if the government has a back door, so does everybody else. So, I am watching this case to see whether technology will take a step forward, or backward. I am encouraged that Apple has said no, they won't decrypt it. I would feel much better if they said no, they CAN'T decrypt it.
But that being said, how this all shakes out could have a significant influence on my views on apple, in spite of my dislike for the 'cult of apple' and for the personal restrictions...
The recent news regarding apple is another thing for me to seriously consider (i.e. the government is trying to get them to break into a dead terrorists encrypted phone and they are refusing).
Once upon a time I had this dream, of a single card you could carry in your pocket, which could serve as your cash, your debit cards, all your credit cards, your insurance card, your drivers license, your passport. one card that would do it all, no more bulky wallets nor more hunting through piles of membership/rewards cards...
The smart phone is hovering near the edges of that dream. You can handle credit card pay through your phone now, some membership programs now send their special offers/rewards coupons directly to mobile phones....
Our phones are holding an increasing amount of extremely sensitive data: Financial data, health data. Friends' data...
A device with that much of my information NEEDS to be impregnable.
And the simple fact is - if the government has a back door, so does everybody else. So, I am watching this case to see whether technology will take a step forward, or backward. I am encouraged that Apple has said no, they won't decrypt it. I would feel much better if they said no, they CAN'T decrypt it.
But that being said, how this all shakes out could have a significant influence on my views on apple, in spite of my dislike for the 'cult of apple' and for the personal restrictions...
Monday, February 22, 2016
Re-thinking Apple.
So,just over a year after making this post about Why I don't own anything apple sells, I found myself the unwilling owner of an iPhone, forced upon me by my company. Then a few months later, company policy changed, and Android phones, and some Microsoft phones were added to the list of allowed devices. I was of course stuck with the iPhone for two years, and I was eagerly awaiting the day when I could switch the thing out and be done with it.
That time is fast approaching, and now I find myself second guessing.
From a technical perspective, my views haven't changed much, I still find them fairly equal. For me, apple is frustratingly restrictive. I am constantly annoyed by the seemingly simple things I can't just easily do on the apple device because, I am apparently not doing it the way apple thinks everyone should do it.
My chief example of this is alarm clocks. I don't think I am asking for that much. I want the ability to assign a playlist as my wake-up alarm and I want the clock to randomly select a song from that list (nothing ruins a favorite song more quickly than using that one song as your wake-up alarm every day. I want it to start softly and slowly fade in, so as to gently wake me, rather than jar me awake.
It was easy to get this working on Android. Not so on apple. first it was not easy to find an app that had this feature set. And then none of them actually work reliably. If you forget to leave the app running on the fore ground before you go to bed the alarm won't work at all. And I can't let the alarm clock override the Do not disturb function. If I set the alarm, I do in fact want it to 'disturb' me.
I still don't like Apple's business practices. I still find them to be innovation killers. And I still disapprove of their practices in China.
However. I have been gaining some new political education on the subject of "conflict minerals". You see much of the fundamental minerals used in the creation of electronic devices comes from conflict areas in Africa. In a number of cases, mines have been taken over by guerrilla forces, who then implement genuine slave labor from the locals to extract these minerals for profit to warlords. Apple's behavior in China is downright civilized in comparison to this.
I haven't been able to find any numbers more recent than 2012. But for 2102 company progress at eliminating conflict minerals, Android companies aren't making much of a showing. Motorola is the one exception. Microsoft is Neck and Neck with apple, and Nokia is right in close. So Apple or Microsoft gain a strong lead for me, in spite of my general preference for the Android ecosystem.
So which of those two? I like Cortana better than Siri, she's much more personable. And in my experience she seems to work more reliably. But, then I also like Speakto it Assistant, and that one is cross-platform.
I like the Microsoft ecosystem, I like the convenience factor of my phone and laptop all speaking the same language. That is likely to lead to better integration and cooperation. I really like the efforts Microsoft if making int he area of family safety. I like the controls they offer to monitor and manage children's devices.
On the other hand, Microsoft is still struggling in the phone space. The current round of Lumias aren't performing well, and rumors are they are going to drop that line. There are rumors that they might pick up with a new phone based on the Microsoft surface platform, but for now, that it vaporware.
What to do, what to do?
That time is fast approaching, and now I find myself second guessing.
From a technical perspective, my views haven't changed much, I still find them fairly equal. For me, apple is frustratingly restrictive. I am constantly annoyed by the seemingly simple things I can't just easily do on the apple device because, I am apparently not doing it the way apple thinks everyone should do it.
My chief example of this is alarm clocks. I don't think I am asking for that much. I want the ability to assign a playlist as my wake-up alarm and I want the clock to randomly select a song from that list (nothing ruins a favorite song more quickly than using that one song as your wake-up alarm every day. I want it to start softly and slowly fade in, so as to gently wake me, rather than jar me awake.
It was easy to get this working on Android. Not so on apple. first it was not easy to find an app that had this feature set. And then none of them actually work reliably. If you forget to leave the app running on the fore ground before you go to bed the alarm won't work at all. And I can't let the alarm clock override the Do not disturb function. If I set the alarm, I do in fact want it to 'disturb' me.
I still don't like Apple's business practices. I still find them to be innovation killers. And I still disapprove of their practices in China.
However. I have been gaining some new political education on the subject of "conflict minerals". You see much of the fundamental minerals used in the creation of electronic devices comes from conflict areas in Africa. In a number of cases, mines have been taken over by guerrilla forces, who then implement genuine slave labor from the locals to extract these minerals for profit to warlords. Apple's behavior in China is downright civilized in comparison to this.
I haven't been able to find any numbers more recent than 2012. But for 2102 company progress at eliminating conflict minerals, Android companies aren't making much of a showing. Motorola is the one exception. Microsoft is Neck and Neck with apple, and Nokia is right in close. So Apple or Microsoft gain a strong lead for me, in spite of my general preference for the Android ecosystem.
So which of those two? I like Cortana better than Siri, she's much more personable. And in my experience she seems to work more reliably. But, then I also like Speakto it Assistant, and that one is cross-platform.
I like the Microsoft ecosystem, I like the convenience factor of my phone and laptop all speaking the same language. That is likely to lead to better integration and cooperation. I really like the efforts Microsoft if making int he area of family safety. I like the controls they offer to monitor and manage children's devices.
On the other hand, Microsoft is still struggling in the phone space. The current round of Lumias aren't performing well, and rumors are they are going to drop that line. There are rumors that they might pick up with a new phone based on the Microsoft surface platform, but for now, that it vaporware.
What to do, what to do?
Sunday, February 21, 2016
Health update: peeling back the layers
I keep putting this off, holding my breath, waiting to see if I am really where I think I am. Which is silly, as the main reason I started posting about my health was to document the process, and information as it was gathered. oh well.
So, a quick recap. 5 years ago, I began experiencing severe abdominal pain, and spasms. A number of tests and procedures later, and I was given a diagnosis of Crohn's. I lived under that for four years. I learned a great deal about Crohn's in that time, as well as a modest amount about various treatments, with their various drawbacks. I also experienced the pain of a change in healthcare policy, which increased the cost of treatment by a few orders of magnitude.
I was still experiencing some symptoms, but sporadically, and not as intense. My life was certainly not what it once was. My wife mentioned a few weeks ago how hard it was to see me wasting away.
Then last march, the abdominal pain and spasms returned with a vengeance. I went to a third Gastroenterology specialist, and switched to a new Family Dr. A number of tests later, and it was concluded that either the Crohn's had gone into remission, or more likely, I had never had Crohn's.
Many more fruitless tests later, and my new Dr. decided to call it IBS instead, then after trying a few unsuccessful, direct treatments for IBS, we did a little out of the Box thinking.
Many years before all this, I had been diagnosed with a mild social anxiety disorder. Where it was mild, and where I was not eager to go the pharmaceutical route with its various side effects, I utilized Cognitive Behavioral Therapy as treatment.At that point, It seemed to be working well, and I thought I had the problem licked.
My Dr. and I decided to include that in the list of possibles, And as it was one of the easier, less expensive ones to explore, she prescribed an anti-anxiety medication. For me to try for a few months.
The first two weeks were horrible! Horrific nausea, a drastic increase in insomnia - that was already a problem for me... I couldn't function! She switched me to a similar alternative medication, and the The symptoms were... lessened... at least to a level where I could mostly function. After about a month, the nausea had passed, and the insomnia was ... well... better...
The spasms were also fading away. Less and less with each passing week. My wife observed that my temperament was much more even as well. I was more patient, less stressed. So we stuck with it. Within a few months, the spasm were gone. I was still experiencing occasional abdominal pain, but now, with the other problem under control, this problem was predictable, and we were finally able to link it to lactose. (A big think you to the person/s who invented lactose free milk and butter!). Years before, I had experimented with that, but could make no link, due to the other issue masking it.
So a few lessons learned:
Patience - I'm not going to say positivity, is necessary, though I suspect it helps, but stoicism is crucial. Sometimes it just takes time to find the right person or place to start peeling back the layers.
Persistence - Don't be afraid to talk to more doctors. The other Dr's weren't necessarily bad. They just missed a crucial piece of information, or made the diagnosis based on their experiences. They did the best they could with what they had. Sometimes a different pair of eyes can understand the information in a different light...
Compassion - My problem - as it turns out - was all (mostly) in my head :). But that doesn't make it any less real. There are many people in this world who are dealing with real health issues which you, me, even they likely don't understand. Their pain is real. Be patient with them.
Science - The scientific process is crucial, examine the evidence, and see where it leads. It is so easy in situations like this to latch onto any idea that offers a cure. And there are so many theories, with compelling sounding defenses, and an abundance of anecdotes. Note, lactose is now a problem for me (along with roughly 50% of the human population). But that doesn't mean that I believe Milk (or Grain, or Meat, or ....) is bad for humans. I can point to just as many anecdotes of people who have thrived on diets of most every sort. It just proves that we are all different. I can imagine a day in the future, when they will be able to perform a genetic test and tell each individual which foods they uniquely should avoid, and which foods they specifically should seek out and make a regular part of their diet, and when that will change as they age.
Faith and Fellowship - There are times when personal stoicism and positivity aren't sufficient. There are times when it is more than you can personally bear. I frequently found myself there. And at those times, I relied upon my Friends, my family, and my Faith in Jesus Christ. I am blessed to be surrounded by wonderful neighbors, and to have many friends around the world who were willing to offer me an ear and a shoulder. I am blessed to have family - also throughout the world who offered both comfort and service in my moments of need. I am fortunate to have had so many people praying on my behalf. Just knowing that gave me hope. And I am fortunate also to have my Savior to turn to. There are many times when I felt like giving up that I would start singing to myself "Fear not, I am with you, oh be ye not dismayed, for I am thy God, and will still give thee aid, I'll strengthen thee help the and cause thee to stand. Upheld by my righteous omnipotent hand."
"In every condition, in sickness and health. In poverty's vale or abounding in wealth. At home or abroad, on the land or the sea. As thy days may demand, so thy succor shall be."
Inevitably as I sang that song, I would feel peace. And I would feel comforted. And I would know that I was being watched over by a loving, caring Father in Heaven. That while pain and sorrow and suffering are sadly a part of this life experience, they are not the end, they are a small part of the grand plan. And even in difficult times, we can experience peace, and joy.
So, now life is slowly returning to something more closely resembling normal. Of course, now I am beginning to experience some effect of growing older, so I am not likely to return to the vigor I had before all this started, but there is now hope again that I might keep one of my long term goals regarding a 5k run at a certain speed after the age of 50 (which my wife was so kind as to smirkily point out was just around the corner. Thanks sweetie).
Onward, ever onward.
So, a quick recap. 5 years ago, I began experiencing severe abdominal pain, and spasms. A number of tests and procedures later, and I was given a diagnosis of Crohn's. I lived under that for four years. I learned a great deal about Crohn's in that time, as well as a modest amount about various treatments, with their various drawbacks. I also experienced the pain of a change in healthcare policy, which increased the cost of treatment by a few orders of magnitude.
I was still experiencing some symptoms, but sporadically, and not as intense. My life was certainly not what it once was. My wife mentioned a few weeks ago how hard it was to see me wasting away.
Then last march, the abdominal pain and spasms returned with a vengeance. I went to a third Gastroenterology specialist, and switched to a new Family Dr. A number of tests later, and it was concluded that either the Crohn's had gone into remission, or more likely, I had never had Crohn's.
Many more fruitless tests later, and my new Dr. decided to call it IBS instead, then after trying a few unsuccessful, direct treatments for IBS, we did a little out of the Box thinking.
Many years before all this, I had been diagnosed with a mild social anxiety disorder. Where it was mild, and where I was not eager to go the pharmaceutical route with its various side effects, I utilized Cognitive Behavioral Therapy as treatment.At that point, It seemed to be working well, and I thought I had the problem licked.
My Dr. and I decided to include that in the list of possibles, And as it was one of the easier, less expensive ones to explore, she prescribed an anti-anxiety medication. For me to try for a few months.
The first two weeks were horrible! Horrific nausea, a drastic increase in insomnia - that was already a problem for me... I couldn't function! She switched me to a similar alternative medication, and the The symptoms were... lessened... at least to a level where I could mostly function. After about a month, the nausea had passed, and the insomnia was ... well... better...
The spasms were also fading away. Less and less with each passing week. My wife observed that my temperament was much more even as well. I was more patient, less stressed. So we stuck with it. Within a few months, the spasm were gone. I was still experiencing occasional abdominal pain, but now, with the other problem under control, this problem was predictable, and we were finally able to link it to lactose. (A big think you to the person/s who invented lactose free milk and butter!). Years before, I had experimented with that, but could make no link, due to the other issue masking it.
So a few lessons learned:
Patience - I'm not going to say positivity, is necessary, though I suspect it helps, but stoicism is crucial. Sometimes it just takes time to find the right person or place to start peeling back the layers.
Persistence - Don't be afraid to talk to more doctors. The other Dr's weren't necessarily bad. They just missed a crucial piece of information, or made the diagnosis based on their experiences. They did the best they could with what they had. Sometimes a different pair of eyes can understand the information in a different light...
Compassion - My problem - as it turns out - was all (mostly) in my head :). But that doesn't make it any less real. There are many people in this world who are dealing with real health issues which you, me, even they likely don't understand. Their pain is real. Be patient with them.
Science - The scientific process is crucial, examine the evidence, and see where it leads. It is so easy in situations like this to latch onto any idea that offers a cure. And there are so many theories, with compelling sounding defenses, and an abundance of anecdotes. Note, lactose is now a problem for me (along with roughly 50% of the human population). But that doesn't mean that I believe Milk (or Grain, or Meat, or ....) is bad for humans. I can point to just as many anecdotes of people who have thrived on diets of most every sort. It just proves that we are all different. I can imagine a day in the future, when they will be able to perform a genetic test and tell each individual which foods they uniquely should avoid, and which foods they specifically should seek out and make a regular part of their diet, and when that will change as they age.
Faith and Fellowship - There are times when personal stoicism and positivity aren't sufficient. There are times when it is more than you can personally bear. I frequently found myself there. And at those times, I relied upon my Friends, my family, and my Faith in Jesus Christ. I am blessed to be surrounded by wonderful neighbors, and to have many friends around the world who were willing to offer me an ear and a shoulder. I am blessed to have family - also throughout the world who offered both comfort and service in my moments of need. I am fortunate to have had so many people praying on my behalf. Just knowing that gave me hope. And I am fortunate also to have my Savior to turn to. There are many times when I felt like giving up that I would start singing to myself "Fear not, I am with you, oh be ye not dismayed, for I am thy God, and will still give thee aid, I'll strengthen thee help the and cause thee to stand. Upheld by my righteous omnipotent hand."
"In every condition, in sickness and health. In poverty's vale or abounding in wealth. At home or abroad, on the land or the sea. As thy days may demand, so thy succor shall be."
Inevitably as I sang that song, I would feel peace. And I would feel comforted. And I would know that I was being watched over by a loving, caring Father in Heaven. That while pain and sorrow and suffering are sadly a part of this life experience, they are not the end, they are a small part of the grand plan. And even in difficult times, we can experience peace, and joy.
So, now life is slowly returning to something more closely resembling normal. Of course, now I am beginning to experience some effect of growing older, so I am not likely to return to the vigor I had before all this started, but there is now hope again that I might keep one of my long term goals regarding a 5k run at a certain speed after the age of 50 (which my wife was so kind as to smirkily point out was just around the corner. Thanks sweetie).
Onward, ever onward.
Sunday, February 7, 2016
Young Men's Basketball
This Saturday, I went with my son to a young men's basketball game - One of those things the LDS church does, to give youth something good to do with their time, to try to foster fellowship and good sportsmanship etc...
As I was watching the game, I noticed something - There was one boy who has some... relatively minor - physical challenges/limitations. Whenever he had the ball, the opposing team players all eased up a bit, matching there playing level to the capability of this boy.
I went to the coach of the opposing to and asked him, was this his doing, or the boys? He informed me that he had said nothing to the boys. These 12-14 year old young men had each independently made the choice to do this. I should note also that they lost the game, and it is quite possible that their easing up on this one boy may have been key in that.
There are some very exceptional young men in this world!
As I was watching the game, I noticed something - There was one boy who has some... relatively minor - physical challenges/limitations. Whenever he had the ball, the opposing team players all eased up a bit, matching there playing level to the capability of this boy.
I went to the coach of the opposing to and asked him, was this his doing, or the boys? He informed me that he had said nothing to the boys. These 12-14 year old young men had each independently made the choice to do this. I should note also that they lost the game, and it is quite possible that their easing up on this one boy may have been key in that.
There are some very exceptional young men in this world!
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
The Fourth Industrial Revolution: A few Musings.
I found this article today. I'd recommend taking the time to digest it...
A very well written article, which examines many facets and possibilities for the future due to advancing technology. Worth the time to read and consider.
The author doesn't go into it quite as much, but mentions 3D printing and the integration of Biology and Technology. One point I find myself considering in this area, which he comes to the edges of in this article...
What will happen to the large businesses and governments of the world? There are now 3D printers for Plastics, Metals, Fabrics and even some biologics. And some effort is being made to construct said printers in a way which allows the various printer parts to be replicated on the printers. Suddenly, not only can the digital world be copied, duplicated infinitely for virtual no cost, so can the physical world. Anyone, ANYONE, with a clever idea could have the potential to produce it.
Can't afford some new toy, some new tools, some new gadget? Design your own and print it yourself.
Much of the massive cost associated with medical devices and drugs is due to the heavy burden of government regulation. What if you are manufacturing your own device or drug for personal use?
But what then happens to big businesses? Will their revenue streams dry up? Will they be able to adapt to a new, decentralized economy? Or will they try desperately to protect themselves through government regulation?
What happens to the world of intellectual property? How will intellectual property be defined in this new world? Will Apple, for instance have to run around suing individual consumers for owning a home made rectangular device with rounded corners that is roughly the same size and shape as an i-something and runs similar programs? Would they be able to win those cases? Would they be able to be profitable?
The Music industry has been something of a precursor to this - Music is now mostly, and may one day soon become exclusively a digital medium. For the past decade or so, we have watched the music industry desperately cling to the good old days. Touting out Metallica to cry about how poor they are because everyone steals their music, Sending their army of lawyers out to sue twelve year old girls for sharing music. They even tried loading spyware on music CD's, and they continue to fiddle around with DRM, and protective legislation. They roam around issuing take-down orders to youtube in a last desperate effort to stem the flow. In a less stupid direction, they have begun to embrace cloud subscription services, making it so convenient to rent access to music, that it is frankly to inconvenient for many to "steal" it. Some artists have left the old music industry behind, acting as their own label, producer, and distributor. Cutting out all the middle men saves them a great deal. And so long as they have sufficiently rabid fans who will choose to willingly pay for their product, they can be very successful.
The final line of defense for most of these large, slow moving behemoths will likely be government regulation.They will try to turn to the Government to write better protection for intellectual property, perhaps event try to prohibit the self-production of certain items. But how can the government control and enforce this? Will the government recognize that there role is going to shrink, or will they too desperately cling to the old way, desperately try to hold on to illusory power?
There is a brave new world coming, one that will require a world of individuals to be alert, forgiving, kind, cooperative, engaged, charitable... willing to negotiate, seek compromise, and stand together. If we do, amazing things will happen. If we don't...
The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means, how to respond
A very well written article, which examines many facets and possibilities for the future due to advancing technology. Worth the time to read and consider.
The author doesn't go into it quite as much, but mentions 3D printing and the integration of Biology and Technology. One point I find myself considering in this area, which he comes to the edges of in this article...
What will happen to the large businesses and governments of the world? There are now 3D printers for Plastics, Metals, Fabrics and even some biologics. And some effort is being made to construct said printers in a way which allows the various printer parts to be replicated on the printers. Suddenly, not only can the digital world be copied, duplicated infinitely for virtual no cost, so can the physical world. Anyone, ANYONE, with a clever idea could have the potential to produce it.
Can't afford some new toy, some new tools, some new gadget? Design your own and print it yourself.
Much of the massive cost associated with medical devices and drugs is due to the heavy burden of government regulation. What if you are manufacturing your own device or drug for personal use?
But what then happens to big businesses? Will their revenue streams dry up? Will they be able to adapt to a new, decentralized economy? Or will they try desperately to protect themselves through government regulation?
What happens to the world of intellectual property? How will intellectual property be defined in this new world? Will Apple, for instance have to run around suing individual consumers for owning a home made rectangular device with rounded corners that is roughly the same size and shape as an i-something and runs similar programs? Would they be able to win those cases? Would they be able to be profitable?
The Music industry has been something of a precursor to this - Music is now mostly, and may one day soon become exclusively a digital medium. For the past decade or so, we have watched the music industry desperately cling to the good old days. Touting out Metallica to cry about how poor they are because everyone steals their music, Sending their army of lawyers out to sue twelve year old girls for sharing music. They even tried loading spyware on music CD's, and they continue to fiddle around with DRM, and protective legislation. They roam around issuing take-down orders to youtube in a last desperate effort to stem the flow. In a less stupid direction, they have begun to embrace cloud subscription services, making it so convenient to rent access to music, that it is frankly to inconvenient for many to "steal" it. Some artists have left the old music industry behind, acting as their own label, producer, and distributor. Cutting out all the middle men saves them a great deal. And so long as they have sufficiently rabid fans who will choose to willingly pay for their product, they can be very successful.
The final line of defense for most of these large, slow moving behemoths will likely be government regulation.They will try to turn to the Government to write better protection for intellectual property, perhaps event try to prohibit the self-production of certain items. But how can the government control and enforce this? Will the government recognize that there role is going to shrink, or will they too desperately cling to the old way, desperately try to hold on to illusory power?
There is a brave new world coming, one that will require a world of individuals to be alert, forgiving, kind, cooperative, engaged, charitable... willing to negotiate, seek compromise, and stand together. If we do, amazing things will happen. If we don't...
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
Random Thought: The Future of Artificial Intellligence - Is Skynet's Grandaddy What We Should Really Be Worried About?
I've had conversations with a number of people on this topic. What do I think of ever-improving AI, do I love it or fear it? Will it help humanity, or destroy us?
The Skynet reference in the title is specific to the Terminator universe, in which an AI becomes self-aware, then proceeds to exterminate the human race, going so far as to develop time travel in order to go back in time and eliminate its most troublesome foes before they become troublesome.
But it also tends to generically reference the idea - commonly used in Sci-Fi - of an artificial intelligence which becomes sophisticated enough to think for itself, then determines that humans are the biggest threat to itself - or humanity, and then through various acts (or inactions) attempts to subjugate or exterminate humans. Terminator, The Matrix, I, Robot (The Movie), Eagle Eye... To name a few.
And this is a concept that worries many, including such "luminaries" as Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak...
But here's a random thought... Is it really Skynet we have to worry about? Or is is his relatively dimwitted grandfather which will be our undoing?
Currently, AI behavior is cropping up in internet search and content delivery. It is a convenience, and a money saver, If you search for Grills, you will suddenly find ad's popping up for grills, if you show an interest in gardening, ads for garden supplies will follow you around. This benefits the suppliers of products by targeting their ad's to interested audiences, rather than spamming the whole world, which theoretically saves advertising dollars. It benefits the customers by showing them things they are actually looking for, in theory reducing the number of pointless cold calls, and potentially putting exciting new products they might actually need in front of them saving them time searching.
But what about the dark side of this?
"I think therefore I am."
"As a man soweth, so shall he reap,"
String-button-mind-magic
See. the down side to this targeted media. Is that we see more of less, and consequently less of more...
I purchased a few "Epic Score" albums from Amazon a while back. Now when I visit amazon, I am flooded with music titles from that same genre. Social media is using this AI as well. I watched a video by some guy named Mat Larson once, years ago, now his tinfoil hat is taking up a whole row in my you-tube feed.
So here's my theory, this relatively dumb AI is helpfully feeding us more of what we like, what it thinks we want to see, what we agree with... and showing us less in the way of new information, new ideas, alternative viewpoints... making us more insular, more isolated, more narrow of view, more ... radical... until we self-destruct... leaving dim-net to starve to death long long before skynet is ever born.
So. what do you think? Is it bad form to make fun of someone for wearing tinfoil whilst donning tinfoil yourself?
The Skynet reference in the title is specific to the Terminator universe, in which an AI becomes self-aware, then proceeds to exterminate the human race, going so far as to develop time travel in order to go back in time and eliminate its most troublesome foes before they become troublesome.
But it also tends to generically reference the idea - commonly used in Sci-Fi - of an artificial intelligence which becomes sophisticated enough to think for itself, then determines that humans are the biggest threat to itself - or humanity, and then through various acts (or inactions) attempts to subjugate or exterminate humans. Terminator, The Matrix, I, Robot (The Movie), Eagle Eye... To name a few.
And this is a concept that worries many, including such "luminaries" as Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak...
But here's a random thought... Is it really Skynet we have to worry about? Or is is his relatively dimwitted grandfather which will be our undoing?
Currently, AI behavior is cropping up in internet search and content delivery. It is a convenience, and a money saver, If you search for Grills, you will suddenly find ad's popping up for grills, if you show an interest in gardening, ads for garden supplies will follow you around. This benefits the suppliers of products by targeting their ad's to interested audiences, rather than spamming the whole world, which theoretically saves advertising dollars. It benefits the customers by showing them things they are actually looking for, in theory reducing the number of pointless cold calls, and potentially putting exciting new products they might actually need in front of them saving them time searching.
But what about the dark side of this?
"I think therefore I am."
"As a man soweth, so shall he reap,"
String-button-mind-magic
See. the down side to this targeted media. Is that we see more of less, and consequently less of more...
I purchased a few "Epic Score" albums from Amazon a while back. Now when I visit amazon, I am flooded with music titles from that same genre. Social media is using this AI as well. I watched a video by some guy named Mat Larson once, years ago, now his tinfoil hat is taking up a whole row in my you-tube feed.
So here's my theory, this relatively dumb AI is helpfully feeding us more of what we like, what it thinks we want to see, what we agree with... and showing us less in the way of new information, new ideas, alternative viewpoints... making us more insular, more isolated, more narrow of view, more ... radical... until we self-destruct... leaving dim-net to starve to death long long before skynet is ever born.
So. what do you think? Is it bad form to make fun of someone for wearing tinfoil whilst donning tinfoil yourself?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)