Monday, June 4, 2012

Four more years with Obama

Yes, I think it is quite likely, in spite of his record setting low approval ratings, that we may get Obama for another four years. Why?

1. Incumbency. Obamba is the incumbent. Incumbents have a fair chance of being re-elected. that whole momentum thing is working for them. It isn't a guarantee, but it helps.

2. Two party politics. Most people attach themselves to either the Republican party or the Democratic party. It's a stupid way to operate a government, but it is what is is, and that is not likely to change anytime soon. So it is going to come down to the Republican in the race or the Democrat in the race.

There will be a few votes taken by other parties, and by independents. Those won't change that the winner will be either a Republican or a Democrat. The Democrats are mostly going to vote Democrat. The two candidates lean slightly to the center of party position, giving both a chance to swing a few votes from the other side. But the Republican side is a bit stirred up at the moment, Thus the moderate position of Romney is likely going to cost him some votes to those who want a more "Conservative" Conservative at the helm. He probably won't recover sufficient Democratic swing votes to cover this loss. 

3. Mormonism. There is a group of fundamentalist Christians who make up a not insignificant part of the republican vote. Many of them are likely to sit out the election, rather than vote for a "Cultist", which is what they have been convinced Romney is. Since they won't vote for "the Mormon", they will effectively cast their vote for Obama.

So, don't be to surprised when the president you love to hate is still running the show next year, and the year after that and...

No comments:

Post a Comment